Nationwide has released its latest house price index for September, including its third quarterly view for 2018.
Nationwide’s index is a leading indicator of market health and buyer demand as it’s based on mortgage approvals across the UK.
Despite seeing a -0.5% fall the previous month, the UK property market has bounced back with a 0.3% increase in September and a very steady 2% increase on an annual basis.
Looking at the last three months, Yorkshire and Humberside is the strongest performing region with an uplift of 5.8% in the last year, joined by both the East and West Midlands, Northern Ireland and the North West which all posted annual quarterly growth of above 4%.
With a drop of -1.7%, the North is the worst performing region with London and the Outer Met regions the only others to record a fall.
The impact of wider market uncertainty has been worst felt in the capital and this is the fifth consecutive quarter that London has seen a decline in property prices. However, the latest drop is a modest one and despite the poor run of form, London prices remain just 3% below their record peak of last year.
Nationwide believes that despite mortgage rates remaining widely affordable, subdued economic activity and the disparity between household earnings and house prices will continue to restrain price growth. They also predict that throughout 2018 as a whole, prices will still increase by 1% overall, which isn’t the market downfall that was widely predicted in the wake of the Brexit vote.
You can see the full report here.
Our growth expert and CEO, Andy Soloman, was on hand to comment on the latest figures..
We see further steady growth recorded where house prices are concerned, and the wheels are yet to fall off the UK property market despite many predicting otherwise.
A misfiring wider economy will prevent UK property prices accelerating up through the gears in the short-term. However, the continued recipe of an imbalance between earnings and the price of getting a foot on the ladder, along with a lack of suitable supply, will ensure price growth keeps ticking over.
That said, the next few months will be vital from a political point of view, as the possibility of a botched Brexit process and the potential of an interest rates increase next month could see buyer demand disappear from the market. If this is the case, not only will 2018 end without a bang, but 2019 could see the market start on the back foot as well.
